Monday, November 2, 2015

Future of Moore’s, Kryder’s, & Robert’s Laws

Computers,as originally designed, were not meant for personal computing and entertainment purposes. During early ages of computer world, computers were mainly used for complex computations by researchers and scientists; Setting up this monster, computer, was very tedious and cumbersome. A use case for home computing or using computers for entertainment was insane idea during those times. However, the revolution of home computing changed the industry and business expectations from computers. Computer designs were made simple enough for general public to embrace the computers and it’s advantages. Soon computers became part of home computing and personal devices, which could be used for education; calculations; document keeping etc. Industry was witnessing a revolution before a revolution. Later on, Introduction of internet gave birth to  “dot com boom” and changed how we perceive the world around us. Businesses embraced the internet and took the advantage of online business opportunities and changed how traditional business used to run and operate. Wherein internet provided a playground of information resources , information era gathered those resources to draw conclusions and inferences and landed us in whole new smarter world.
The changes we have seen so far in the industry have become possible because of 3 main factors, as explained by 3 laws
  • ·         Moore’s Law, according to which “The number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years”
  • ·         Kryder’s Law , According to which there will be “40 % per year decrease in the cost performance of hard disks”
  • ·         Roberts Law , According to which cost of data transmission over network would decrease every year.

As stated in Moore’s law ,we have witnessed significant increase in number of transistors on the chip and how that has helped industry in terms of storing more data; compact design of storage devices; new use cases for technologies. Today, a compact memory card or flash drive can store as much data as a whole hard disk could store, a decade ago.
Use of computers and storage devices has increase at an exponential rate because of one important factor i.e cost. Cost and performance of the storage devices has reduced to a point where industry can store any amount of information and data , as stated by Kryder’s law.
On the other hand , information era has become possible due to increased efficiency of networks and computers. Today, we are living in a world, which is always connected ; any information is just a click away from us.

Where is Industry moving?

Increased speed, power and efficiency of computers, network and storage devices have shaped all the industries and world around us but what’s next? Where the industry goes from here ? if we follow the same track of progress that we have been following since last one decade. What is the future of technology, if we continue to see same progress over the next coming years? To answer all these questions lets unpack our discussion a little more.
So far two worlds, computer world and human world , have remained different to a large extent. Technology helps in making our day to day decisions but we still can’t use the information and technology as we can use rest of our physical objects. Our day to day physical objects are still far disconnected from computers and networks. For instance :Candle ,which is placed in front of me as I am writing this paper, is still not connected to our information and computer world. What if technology world and physical world start talking to each other? Our physical objects such as chairs, dish washer, refrigerators, homes, keys, doors, plants, cars , dining tables, clothes could all be connected to computers and networks ;we would land in  a whole new smarter world where we can efficiently use and manage these devices.  What is the next big thing that the industry is anticipating? As termed by the industry “Internet of things “ is going to revolutionize our industry and going to make the world ever more smarter. Internet of things , is set of connected devices , which can not only talk to certain applications but can talk to each other to take decisions and handle day to day human activities more efficiently by reducing human intervention. These devices are equipped with sensors and/or actuators to send the information to other devices and can process information received from other devices to take intelligent decisions. We are already on the track of paving path for future world. Market has started flooding with smart things such Fitness bands, smart watches, Health trackers, baby monitoring devices, smart homes , smart cars , smart parking , smart bins, smart buildings, smart lightings ,smart locks , smart doors and many more. Billions of such devices are anticipated to be connected to network and as we all know once any device is connected to network , it opens up unprecedented opportunities to utilize the information generated by the device. Hence, Internet of things is going to land us in a whole new smarter world, as we have seen in Sci-Fi movies or even better. Big Market players have already started betting on the potential of Internet of things and have started the journey towards future. 

Future of Manufacturing:

Even though, application area of Internet of things is very huge covering health industry, Home appliances, Energy Industry, Manufacturing industry, Health Industry and many more , we will pick one industry vertical to discuss how future of the industry can be imagined even beyond current state of Internet of things.
Internet to things hold true potential to bring Fourth industrial revolution following- steam engine; the conveyor belt; and the first phase of IT and automation technology. (Löffler 2013) . Smart sensor and actuator based devices can not only be used to do a lot of automation in a factory but they can also be used and become independent processes in any manufacturing life cycle of a product. We can see another revolution in supply chain management if we can intelligently access the warehouse data, manufacturing units data and monitor logistics to make right business decision at right time. What we have talked so far is reality and industry is already in progress to use these devices to manage the resources efficiently. If we think beyond current state of progress then we can see that the possibility of linking all the physical objects used in the manufacturing industry such as raw material, packing material etc to the network ; we can further reduce human intervention if all these raw materials are intelligent enough to decide their final destination, location and unit position in the product, based on the physical characteristics of the material. In an extreme case these materials can be intelligent enough to know what customer order they are going to be part of and how to arrange themselves in the required fashion within given timelines for the given order. This is all possible ,looking at the current growth of the industry and how industry is utilizing the potential of reduced cost, better systems, intelligence built in smaller devices and reduction in cost of transmission of data.

Challenges and concerns:


            As we all know convenience does not come without a cost so surely there are some disadvantages of this new future. One of the major concerns that we can see or anticipate to come across during our journey is privacy and security. We have seen history of data breaches during information era and with billions of more devices coming to network this situation would only worsen. Therefore , security and privacy is the major question that industry is trying to find an answer for. Another social problem associated is digital divide, the gap between set of people who can access the information and who can’t access the information using modern resources. It limits one’s ability to take part new market dynamics. New technological tools for businesses give new opportunities to business to compete in whole different way.  However, Digital divide can limit this participation.

It will be interesting to witness this journey. 




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